[Reprint] interview with Chen Li: small foam tray top unit not to fall prey to scald _ walked together day

Original address: an interview with Chen Li: small foam tray top unit not to fall prey to scald author: River Island is currently a share of overall at a reasonable valuation levels, but this rational is the result of ice two days on average. Large blue-chip ice water, such as banks, insurance, and other small top unit is boiling water, ice water + water = warm water. Value investing is a real investment, is a trend-band operation speculation, value investing is the way of thinking, and concern is the essence of things is their intrinsic value, focus on fact and logic;-band imagery of operations is concerned about the things that price fluctuations, focusing on speculHelp Desk Tracking Softwareation, and games. an interview with Chen Li: small foam tray top unit nwells fargo home equity loansot to fall prey to scald follower of Buffett's many, Chen Li is the more low-key. From the start of the "blogging Buffett" later "Buffett in the road", Chen Li has been committed to the study and dissemination oDesk Help Software Trackingf Buffett's investment philosophy. May 2010, Chen Li founded the Shanghai power asset management centre (limited partnership). "Business is a limited partnership, members are primarily mean Buffett Club member. "Chen Li business news of the financial intelligence quotient reporter recently said in an interview," the principal is a group of like-minded people together to do something, we all agree with Warren Buffet's investment and want to practice, this is the most fun. " should not combine value investing and band operation of the financial intelligence quotient: do you think the market value of investments in China should be combined with the band operation do? Chen Li: I think whether it is in China, the United States or any other country's stock market, you should not combine value investing and band operation.����Because this is not the same thing entirely, is an entirely different point of view, ideas, view the two ways of thinking are not the same. Value investing is a real investment, is a trend-band operation speculation, value investing is the way of thinking, and concern is the essence of things is their intrinsic value, focus on fact and logic;-band imagery of operations is concerned about the things that price fluctuations, focusing on speculation, and games. This under the surface, but not according to the nature of the decision-making, it is not correct.����For example, a person had a fever, perhaps because there are many kinds, catch fresh, virtual Dr or infection, wounds, and so on, do not need to eat all the fever medicine to lower the temperature cools, some may want to reduce inflammation, and some to aiding digestion is correct, this is the mindset you want to see the nature of things. The other hand, this itself can hardly be combining the two, and sometimes also counterproductive.����Wuliangye price drops to $ 22 per cent last year, from valuation point of view, must have been undervalued, at least 60 percent or more but according to technical analysis, have broken bits must stop; value analysis tells you should buy, but technical analysis believed it should sell, this is the contradiction. Of the financial intelligence quotient: when you invest, and completely do without looking at technology analysis? Chen Li: I have ever seen, but also very system GEO-, but now has been eliminated in this regard. Rely on technical analysis of error probability is large, you often face decisions frequently probability of decision making mistakes is very large. But the number of times the value of investment decisions are rarely, after careful assessment and were very seriously, and error probability is very small. For example, you love in order to get married, then the probability of making mistakes are limited. But if you do not aim at getting married love, mistakes that probability is very large, because your request is too low. May meet one of the criteria as pretty, but ignoring this one inherent in things such as ideas, personality and cultural backgrounds, and so on.����We are more in the analysis of intrinsic value. Of the financial intelligence quotient: value investing: how to determine the sale point? Chen Li: value investing is not equal to the permanent hold, held entirely on the basis of the long-term can buy low and sell high, but why not the same.����Contrarian trading is based on valuations, underestimate the regional buy in batches, as down as possible, overestimation of area sold in batches, so combined. I summarized down value investing basics of strategy should be the doctrine of operation = long-term holders + scrolling operations, roll and band operations there are essential differences, it is based on the valuation of buy low and sell high. Of course, for some excellent companies or is in a high growth company, can't operate if such actions, are likely to sell soon, missing the period of high growth in corporate value. This method is more suitable for cyclical industries, or after a period of high growth companies, its value is clear, it is impossible to have substantial growth in the future. Because it is not particularly suitable for ultra-long-term holders. Some medium-quality enterprise, and you buy because of its cheap, do not have to wait until the overestimation of area sold, reasonable range can also be sold.����There are times when the market is not necessarily to these companies is too high a premium, you wait to the overestimation of area.����There are also other selling point is the company fundamentals deteriorate; second, has a better chance, you can share swap; there is also a find was judgment you are wrong, you should also get error correcting and sold. So long is the most basic and classic action value investment strategy, but it is not the only policy, it is necessary to maintain a certain flexibility according to the specific circumstances, otherwise they will be guilty of dogmatism and absolute error, extremism.����In fact, some were safety is guaranteed by principal arbitrage and short term hedging also belong to the value of investments. Of the financial intelligence quotient: is what you said such high growth industry? Chen Li: mainly consumer and medical industries. Current market valuations are very high, of course, you can only buy chant. Although growth is high, but certainly not so expensive to buy, because the safety margins are too small to defeat the once high growth, earnings will decline, stock prices will also double down.����However medicines in China is a bit special, earnings haven't come down before, so very high demands on individual research capacity and unsuitable for retail investors, because medicines were well understood, we buy is its own understandable. Of the financial intelligence quotient: you say "understand" what is the meaning? Chen Li: generally considered is to familiarize yourself, you can understand how its products are produced, used, and so on, actually this is just the surface view, Mr Buffett's "understandable" is specified:The business prospects and economic plan for the next ten years. Buffett can't buy such as Microsoft, because Bill Gates himself on Buffett said that Microsoft must be at least three crises facing in the next ten years, growing up with many crossroads. Even Bill Gates himself couldn't see ten years enterprise, nabafeite, of course, will not buy it. But also for the long term investment, in particular, you may see ten years is not enough, you should get the competitive advantage of it for the next twenty or thirty years or 50 years can continue. a share is currently "+ water ice water" of the financial intelligence quotient: what do you think the current a-share valuation? Chen Li: currently a share of overall valuations at a reasonable range, but this rational is the result of ice two days on average.����Large blue-chip ice water, such as banks, insurance, and other small top unit is boiling water, ice water + water = warm water. Of the financial intelligence quotient: do you think 2011 a-share market what are the major risks? Chen Li: the main risks are small tray top unit foam scalded in boiling water. Graham pointed out that the investor the biggest risk is in a favourable business environment to buy inferior units. Say yes to Prince bought the toad.����As soon as a favourable business environment no longer, poor share would be exposed, and share prices are plummeting, investors will fall into an abyss. Domestic investors beware packaged listed GEM stocks of high-growth, higher earnings.����Their wings are not rigid, yuyiweifeng, but already "blue sky" overdraft not only the future, overdrawn even beyond, once the camouflage removal, high-growth come to nothing, stock prices would have "double kill Davis", and 10 years share a substantial proportion of the gem is withdrawing, investors want "salted fish" may have to rely on "afterlife margin." Of the financial intelligence quotient: which industries are you currently looking to? what basis? Chen Li: If you do not consider valuations, I over the coming decades is optimistic about the four is the industry's leading industrial groups, a generalized consumption, including daily consumption, brewing, pharmaceutical, retail chains,; second, financial services; three resources monopoly, and the network information. Good reason for this is that these industries tend to have a permanent "moat" of the enterprise. For example, the four industry groups like the four pieces of Aquatics lush Prairies, is rich in the Chollima, Bole long-term investments were chosen for preference.����Solar is the most promising in the emerging industry, because the ultimate human energy solutions can only be viewed from the current solar energy.����If you consider valuations, underestimate the industries mainly in financial services; reasonable or slightly underestimated the industry's leading distribution resources monopoly, part of consumer industries, part of the information services industries. Of the financial intelligence quotient: the financial services industry be underestimated for a long period of time, do you think this year will be sustainable? Chen Li: 2011 is continuously underestimated state forecast financial services is beyond the scope of my ability. But according to Graham, statistics, one or only a certain class of stock of underestimating the duration is less than 2.5 years.����Such a rule in China's stock market is valid, is available for all validation reference. In addition to valuation point of view, I am optimistic about the financial services industry because it is able to form a "moat", it has customers in viscous, brand, corporate culture, and so on, are able to guarantee its future competitive advantage.����"Moat" distribution of the highest density of industry's first 125��c daily consumption, followed by financial services. Of course, because it leveraged business, there are greater risks. Risk management is the essence of the financial sector. Facing the future Bank loan bad debt increases, the hidden dangers of the real estate bubble, there are also bad assets rise, increased liquidity risk, interest rate challenge. And the country is currently on its reverse cycle, improve capital adequacy ratios, provision coverage, leveraged index requirement. Country is now on its regulation and the previous economic cycle is different, its profitability will decline. But overall, the experience from European and American markets, in the process of liberalization of interest rates, interest rates will go down at the outset, but after strategic transformation, financial innovation would gradually picked up profitability back to life. (Sources/business news /LIU Tian)